Statistical Downscaling HadCM3 Model for Detection and Perdiction of Seasonal Climatic Variations (Case Study: Khabr Rangeland, Kerman, Iran)

Document Type: Research and Full Length Article

Authors

1 Dep. of Range Land Management, Agricultural Sciences & Natural Resources University of Gorgan

2 Dep. of Range Land Management, Agricultural Sciences & Natural Resources University of Gorgan.

3 Dep. of Watershed and Arid Zone Management, Agricultural Sciences & Natural Resources University of Gorgan

4 Irrigation Group, Abureyhan University, Tehran

5 Dep. of Agricultural Exyension and Education, Agricultural Sciences & Natural Resources University of Gorgan.

Abstract

Rangelands are one of the most vulnerable parts concerning the climate
changes‟ impacts. These impacts are even stronger in the arid and semi-arid areas where
rangeland ecosystems are in critical conditions. Therefore, it is crucial to figure out the
actual dynamics of climate variations on the rangelands. The aim of this research was to
determine climate changes in Khabr rangeland, Kerman, Iran. So, four meteorological data
sets of HadCM3 model including minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation and
radiation rates were used to assess climate changes in the region. In this regard, climate
changes during 2011-2039 were assessed by downscaling HadCM3 data using LARS-WG
model under three scenarios of B1, A2 and A1B. The results have showed that the rainfall
rates of spring and summer would have declining trends under all three scenarios.
Minimum and maximum temperature rates would increase in all seasons, and just radiation
one showed a decreasing trend for winter. Based on A1B scenario, minimum and
maximum temperature rates had the highest increasing trend. Radiation and precipitation
had the highest increasing and declining trends in the A2 scenario, respectively. Moreover,
the increase in maximum and minimum temperature rates was averagely greater than the
past and consequently despite the increasing trend in minimum and maximum temperature
rates, the increase in the mean temperature rate during this period would be expected.
According to the results, Khabr rangeland‟s climatic conditions will be significantly
different in the next 30 years and long-term and strategic planning is necessary in
consistent with the management policies with these conditions.

Keywords